02-13 2020   09:47:07

When the global economy is short of China's "gold master"

2 月 5 日,韩国首尔的乐天免税店里,零零散散地可以看到一些购物的游客,员工完全没有了年前忙碌的样子。一位导购表示,“原来我们营业人员在店内每天都要工作到 9 点商场关门后,再收拾专柜才能准备回家,现在 6 点半商店就关门了。当然,我们陪家人的时间也更多”。

On February 5, the Lotte duty free shop in Seoul, South Korea, can see some tourists who are shopping in scattered places. The employees are not as busy as they were years ago. A shopping guide said, "we used to work every day in the store until 9 o'clock when the store was closed, and then we could pack up the counter before we were ready to go home. Now the store is closed at 6:30. Of course, we spend more time with our families.

相比普通员工,免税店的管理人员显然没有这么豁达。“在上个周末( 2 月 1 日- 2 日),商场的整体销售额相比前一个周末又下降了30%,雪花秀、后等人气品牌如今销售额减少高达80%左右”,想起两个星期之前门庭若市的热闹,管理人员们的脸上写满了落寞。

Compared with ordinary employees, the managers of duty-free stores are obviously not so open-minded. "At the end of last week (February 1-2), the overall sales of shopping malls decreased by 30% compared with the previous weekend, and the sales of popular brands such as snow show and Houhou decreased by about 80%," I think of the bustle of the market two weeks ago, and the faces of managers are full of loneliness.


But what is worse than them is the foreign brand stores in the mainland of China. About half of Nike's Direct stores have been closed, while other stores have also cut their hours. Adidas also claims to have closed "a large number" of direct and agency stores.


A sudden disaster has put domestic enterprises, big and small, in a deep water, but it is not the case abroad. When people can't go out, the "Spring Festival stall" of the global economy seems to be dead.


Overseas "bankruptcy" tide?

继餐饮巨头西贝发布“账上现金支撑不过 3 个月”的消息刷屏后,兄弟连教育、K歌之王由于无法展开业务,资金链断裂,也宣告“阵亡”。肺炎疫情的阴影之下,国内中小企业大规模倒闭的趋势可能已经开始出现。

After Xibei, the catering giant, released the news that "cash on account can only support three months", brother Lian, the king of education and karaoke, was unable to carry out business, and the capital chain was broken, which also announced "death". Under the shadow of pneumonia, the trend of large-scale bankruptcy of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises may have begun to appear.


And this wave of tide also gradually spread abroad.

上周末,一年一度的札幌冰雪节开幕,往年活动期间常常人满为患,十分拥挤。今年,冷清的商店街上只看到三三两两戴着口罩的游客。据札幌市出入境管理局的摘要显示,自 1 月 24 日起的 10 天春节假期里,约有 12900 名中国人抵达新千岁机场,与去年相比下降了30%以上。

Last weekend, the annual Sapporo ice and Snow Festival opened. In previous years, it was often crowded and overcrowded. This year, only three, three, two or two tourists wearing masks were seen on the streets of cold shops. According to the Sapporo entry exit administration, about 12900 Chinese arrived at the new millennium airport during the 10-day Spring Festival holiday from January 24, down more than 30% from last year.

仙本那 海边 旅游

Xianbena Seaside Tour

奈良县一位售卖“鹿仙贝”的老板武田丰表示,他的店曾经每日生产约 1 万枚“鹿仙贝”,如今销量骤降了80%,“如果这种情况持续下去,将是生死攸关的问题”。

Wu Tianfeng, a boss of selling deer fairy shells in Nara County, said that his shop once produced about 10000 deer fairy shells a day, and now the sales volume has plummeted by 80%, "if this situation continues, it will be a matter of life and death".


Of course, not only the supermarkets and souvenir shops around the scenic spot, but also the department stores and duty-free shops that used to have a huge flow of people were affected by the epidemic. Many local retailers in Japan feel helpless about the sudden consumption downturn. For example, the tax-free sales from Chinese tourists account for about 80% of the total tax-free sales, and such a high proportion generally exists in other branches of gaodaowu.

更何况,高岛屋中国连年亏损, 2019 年 6 月本打算退出中国,好在上海本地政府给高岛屋大幅度降低了房租成本,才得以“重拾信心”。只是没曾想,中国疫情爆发直接危及日本本土业务,无疑让高岛屋雪上加霜。

What's more, Gaodao house lost money for years in China. In June 2019, it was intended to leave China. Fortunately, the local government in Shanghai reduced the rent cost to Gaodao house, so that it could "regain confidence". Just did not think that China's outbreak directly endangers Japan's domestic business, undoubtedly making Takashima worse.


At present, the local government of Japan has said that it may introduce a government loan system to solve the problem for some facilities with difficult operation.

与日、韩两国旅游行业的相关从业者相同,全球各地的唐人街餐馆、旅行社也在遭受市场寒冬。位于法拉盛的一家酒店的经理说, 1 月份最后两周他们的生意减少了四成;皇后区一家旅行社的老板原本为 200 名中国游客预订了这两周的旅游,如今却在考虑解聘雇员…

Like the relevant practitioners of tourism industry in Japan and South Korea, restaurants and travel agencies in Chinatown around the world are suffering from the cold winter of the market. The manager of a hotel in flushing said their business fell by 40% in the last two weeks of January. The owner of a travel agency in Queens, who had booked 200 Chinese tourists for the two weeks, is now considering dismissing employees

根据宏观经济数据显示,自 2002 年非典暴发以来,入境美国的中国人增加了1270%, 2019 年达到 280 万人次,疫情将导致中国游客在美消费减少 103 亿美元。

According to the macroeconomic data, since the outbreak of SARS in 2002, the number of Chinese entering the United States has increased by 1270%, reaching 2.8 million in 2019, which will lead to a reduction of US $10.3 billion in Chinese tourists' consumption in the United States.


When the epidemic strikes, the small and medium-sized enterprises that are prone to close down and have difficulty in cash flow are the first ones to be hit, as is the case for those overseas enterprises that provide services specifically for Chinese customers and Chinese consumers.


Luxury giant's "disease"


The luxury Research Department of BNP Paribas once published a report called "ten crises of luxury industry". In order to describe China's consumer market, which has a profound impact on the world, the report said: "if China sneezes, the global luxury market will get pneumonia".


Now China is really suffering from pneumonia. The global luxury market is like being strangled. Even the giant can only breathe.

近日,拥有Coach、Kate Spade等品牌的美国轻奢集团Tapestry表示,预计下半财年销售额损失约为 2 亿- 2. 5 亿美元。同样宣布下调全年预期的还有英国奢侈品牌Burberry,其将近40%的销售额来自中国消费者。

Recently, tapestry, an American light luxury group with coach, Kate Spade and other brands, said it expected to lose about $200 million to $250 million in sales in the second half of the fiscal year. Burberry, a British luxury brand, also announced a year-round cut, with nearly 40% of its sales coming from Chinese consumers.


As a consumer country contributing 90% to the sustained growth of the global personal luxury market, if the domestic epidemic crisis cannot be solved in a short time, the negative impact of this market depression will directly map to the development of the giant throughout the year.

其一,颓势的股价仍将持续。过去两周,LVMH、开云集团股票分别应声下跌约8.5%、8%,Burberry则下滑12%,Capri Holdings的股价更是蒸发14.7%。

First, the declining stock price will continue. In the past two weeks, LVMH and Kaiyun group shares fell about 8.5% and 8% respectively, burberry fell 12%, and Capri holdings lost 14.7%.

参照 2003 年非典期间,根据国际投资银行Morgan Stanley数据分析,奢侈品行业指数在 1 月(SARS疫情真正被中国媒体大规模报道)下落5%,至 3 月国际卫生组织WHO对全球发出中国疫情警告时,进一步下跌。直至 6 月份世

Referring to the SARS period in 2003, according to the data analysis of Morgan Stanley of the international investment bank, the luxury goods industry index fell by 5% in January (the SARS epidemic was really reported by the Chinese media on a large scale), and fell further in March when the World Health Organization (who) issued a global warning of the Chinese epidemic. Until June